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Abstract The timing of biological events, known as phenology, plays a key role in shaping ecosystem dynamics, and climate change can significantly alter these timings. The Gulf of Maine on the Northeast U.S. Shelf is vulnerable to warming temperatures and other climate impacts, which could affect the distribution and production of plankton species sensitive to phenological shifts. In this study, we apply a novel data‐driven modeling approach to long‐term datasets to understand the population variability ofCalanus finmarchicus, a lipid‐rich copepod that is fundamental to the Gulf of Maine food web. Our results reveal how phenology impacts the complex intermingling of top‐down and bottom‐up controls. We find that early initiation of the annual phytoplankton bloom prompts an early start to the reproductive season for populations ofC. finmarchicusin the inner Gulf of Maine, resulting in high spring abundance. This spring condition appears to be conducive to enhanced predation pressure later in the season, consequently resulting in overall lowC. finmarchicusabundance in the fall. These biologically controlled dynamics are less pronounced in the outer Gulf of Maine, where water exchanges near the boundary have a greater influence. Our analysis augments existing hypotheses in fisheries oceanography and classical ecological theory by considering unique plankton life‐history characteristics and shelf sea dynamics, offering new insights into the biological factors drivingC. finmarchicusvariability. 

Abstract Spatial population synchrony, defined as spatial covariation in population density fluctuations, exists across different temporal and spatial scales. Determining the degree of spatial synchrony is useful for inferring environmental drivers of population variability in the wake of climate change. In this study, we applied novel statistical methods to detect spatial synchrony patterns ofCalanus finmarchicuson the Northeast U.S. Shelf at multiple spatiotemporal scales using unevenly distributed data. Our results reveal thatC. finmarchicussubpopulations connected by advection are not necessarily in synchrony, indicating that the degree of synchrony is likely influenced by heterogeneity of local habitats. In addition, regionally synchronous environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) may not play as significant a role in influencing subregional population dynamics as was previously hypothesized. Overlooking the spatial heterogeneity of synchronous patterns at different time scales could lead to erroneous inferences of potential environmental drivers responsible forC. finmarchicusvariability. 

Abstract Measurements by the submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) can be used to derive high‐resolution in situ nitrate concentration with reliable accuracy and precision. Here we report our operational practices for SUNA deployment (including pre‐cruise instrument preparation and in‐cruise instrument maintenance) and detailed post‐cruise nitrate quality control procedures for SUNA integrated onto the CTD rosette. This work is based on experiences and findings from over 500 individual SUNA casts collected from 24 cruises (of which 14 cruises have been quality controlled so far) over the past 5 yr. After applying previously published spectral corrections for temperature, salinity, and pressure effects, we found residual biases in SUNA nitrate estimates compared to independently measured discrete samples. We further develop and assess a new two‐step procedure to remove remaining biases: (1) a general temperature‐dependent adjustment at low‐nitrate concentrations; and (2) a cruise‐specific full‐range bias correction. Our final quality‐controlled SUNA nitrate data achieve an accuracy of 0.34–0.78 μM, with a precision of 0.08–0.21 μM, at a vertical resolution of 1 m. Additional comparisons between the nitrate and density data confirm the high quality of the quality‐controlled SUNA data. Although applying spectral correction algorithms increases the accuracy and precision of the instrument‐output nitrate concentration, we emphasize that additional constraints of SUNA measurements against other independent sources (e.g., bottle data, temperature, and density) are irreplaceable to ensure the accuracy of final nitrate data. 

Abstract In aquatic ecosystems, allochthonous nutrient transport to the euphotic zone is an important process that fuels new production. Here, we use high‐resolution physical and biogeochemical observations from five summers to estimate the mean vertical nitrate flux, and thus new production over the Northeast U.S. Shelf (NES). We find that the summertime nitrate field is primarily controlled by biological uptake and physical advection–diffusion processes, above and below the 1% light level depth, respectively. We estimate the vertical nitrate flux to be 8.2 ± 5.3 × 10⁻⁶ mmol N m⁻² s⁻¹for the mid‐shelf and 12.6 ± 8.6 × 10⁻⁶ mmol N m⁻² s⁻¹for the outer shelf. Furthermore, we show that the new production to total primary production ratio (i.e., the f‐ratio), consistently ranges between 10% and 15% under summer conditions on the NES. Two independent approaches—nitrate flux‐based new production and O₂/Ar‐based net community production—corroborate the robustness of the f‐ratio estimation. Since ~ 85% of the total primary production is fueled by recycled nutrients over sufficiently broad spatial and temporal scales, less than 15% of the organic matter produced in summer is available for export from the NES euphotic zone. Our direct quantification of new production not only provides more precise details about key processes for NES food webs and ecosystem function, but also demonstrates the potential of this approach to be applied to other similar datasets to understand nutrient and carbon cycling in the global ocean. 

Abstract The Northeast US shelf ecosystem is undergoing unprecedented changes due to long-term warming trends and shifts in regional hydrography leading to changes in community composition. However, it remains uncertain how shelf occupancy by the region's dominant, offshore small pelagic fishes, also known as forage fishes, has changed throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Here, we use species distribution models to estimate the change in shelf occupancy, mean weighted latitude, and mean weighted depth of six forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, and whether those trends were linked to coincident hydrographic conditions. Our results suggest that observed shelf occupancy is increasing or unchanging for most species in both spring and fall, linked both to gear shifts and increasing bottom temperature and salinity. Exceptions include decreases to observed shelf occupancy by sand lance and decreases to Atlantic herring's inferred habitat suitability in the fall. Our work shows that changes in shelf occupancy and inferred habitat suitability have varying coherence, indicating complex mechanisms behind observed shelf occupancy for many species. Future work and management can use these results to better isolate the aspects of forage fish life histories that are important for determining their occupancy of the Northeast US shelf. 

Abstract The lipid-rich calanoid copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, plays a critical role in the Gulf of Maine pelagic food web. Despite numerous studies over the last several decades, a clear picture of variability patterns and links with key environmental drivers remains elusive. This study applies model-based scaling and sensitivity analyses to a regional plankton dataset collected over the last four decades (1977–2017). The focus is to describe the gulf-wide spatio-temporal patterns across three major basins, and to assess the relative roles of internal population dynamics and external exchanges. For the spring stock, there is strong synchrony of interannual variability among three basins. This variability is largely driven by internal population dynamics rather than external exchanges, and the internal population dynamics are more sensitive to the change of top-down mortality regime than the bottom-up forcings. For the fall stock, the synchrony among basins weakens, and the variability is influenced by both internal mortality and external dilution loss. There appears to be no direct connection between the spring stock with either the preceding or subsequent fall stock, suggesting seasonal or sub-seasonal scales of population variability and associated drivers. The results highlight seasonally varying drivers responsible for population variability, including previously less recognized top-down control. 

abstract The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured. 

This dataset includes hatch and larval period for sand lance collected in 2019 and results from particle tracking runs of simulated sand lance larvae throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf as part of Long-Term Ecological Research (NES-LTER). Release dates vary by region, corresponding to hatch and settlement dates of settling sand lance collected in 2019. Particles were depth-keeping throughout the upper 40 m to best replicate our understanding of the vertical distribution of sand lance larvae. Data were used to determine the average particle transport pathways from these sand lance habitats, including connectivity among the three hotspots, and spatial variability of connectivity within each hotspot. Further information can be found within the manuscript: Suca, J. J., Ji, R., Baumann, H., Pham, K., Silva, T. L., Wiley, D. N., Feng, Z., & Llopiz, J. K. (2022). Larval transport pathways from three prominent sand lance habitats in the Gulf of Maine. Fisheries Oceanography, 31( 3), 333-352. https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12580